Some Good News
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 5…
VALID 230347Z – 230445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
PORTIONS OF WW 5 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 06Z
EXPIRATION WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS
FARTHER E/S IN WRN/MIDDLE TN…NRN/CNTRL MS…NWRN AL…AND PERHAPS
NERN LA.
BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EWD ACROSS NERN AR ON APPROACH TO
THE MS RIVER…WITH A MORE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OCCURRING IN SERN
AR. LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED IN AR…WITH A
TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVOLVING INTO A COMPARATIVELY
GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER E/SE…A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
SLOWLY DEEPENED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO N-CNTRL MS. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AS
03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOTED A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET…WELL AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT BACK IN NERN TX. GIVEN
THE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT…IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A
COUPLE OF CELLS WOULD MATURE WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND DEEPEN
INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
